Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Timbers in San Jose Preview

The boys travel to the Bay Area to face off tonight against the top team in the league, San Jose Earthquakes. Coming off a tough game this weekend, with another game at Salt Lake on Saturday, we can expect a roster shakeup over the course of this road trip. Portland still has yet to win a match on the road, and I don't think it's very likely that we'll see that streak ended this week. I think we could sneak a draw out of one of the two matches, most likely Salt Lake as they had a rough Champions League match in Panama last night. I'm expecting a heavy loss in California of the -2 differential variety. Wondolowski scores early, and Simon Dawkins adds a second before halftime. Nagbe pulls one back after the break only for Lenhart to pile two on after he comes in late. 4-1

Donovan Ricketts is out for a few weeks with a shoulder separation, so Joe Bendik will step into the starting lineup. Jake Gleeson was taken out by a Seattle thug in the Reserve match, so Scott Angevine was called up from the MLS goalkeeper pool to act as his deputy. Steven Smith will come back into the starting lineup, even though Wallace had a great performance on Saturday. We can expect to see Eric Brunner make his first team debut this week, but I think it will come on Saturday as he went 90 minutes on Sunday, so Horst and Mosquera will continue their partnership in the middle. Lovel Palmer will start at right back (his role on the Jamaican National Team) as Kimura has been terrible lately. As bad as Palmer is, Kimura is every bit his equal. If I had more inside information on the team's travel roster, I would have an advantage in predicting this stuff, like some other writers.

Jack remains the anchor in the midfield, and Eric Alexander will come in as Chara is out injured. Nagbe maintains his spot at the point of the midfield triangle. Songo'o starts again on the left, but I think anything I say after that is just guessing. Kalif showed he deserves to start again after his performance in the reserve match, and Sal is so easily shut down by players who are as fast as him, it has to happen. He also did not play the whole match on Sunday. Gavin really likes both players, so I cannot decide who will start. Mwanga showed a little of what he can provide up front when he came on against Seattle, and Dike showed exactly what he cannot do - consistently win challenges and hold up the ball when it comes his way. I think we will see Danny start since he didn't play in the reserve match.

Rodney Wallace will come off the bench first, for Songo'o, as his reward for his performance over the weekend. This will reduce the team's technical quality but increase the speed just as the game is slowing down. We cannot forget the increase of chaos that adding Wallace into the mix will provide, much as adding Lenhart late in the game does for San Jose. Depending on how Danny is doing, he might come out for Dike, but if he's having a great game, we might see an ineffective Kalif or Darlington come out instead. Either of those changes would result in a change of team shape to more of 4-4-2 diamond, which is also a good tactic if things are working later on in a match. The final sub will be Zizzo, probably very late, for Nagbe or Kalif, whomever is still left. I see no reason for Boyd to play another minute for this team.

I haven't paid enough attention to the Earthquakes lineup to successfully predict anything. I know they almost always play a flat 4-4-2 with Wondolowski and Gordon up top, then bring Lenhart in later in the game, sometimes for one of the forwards and sometimes for another position to pile it on up top. Steven Beitashour has been having a career season at right back and was called up to the All-Star game as well as a national team call up in August. Marvin Chavez is out injured, and Mehdi Ballouchy started for him. We may see Ramiro Corrales start though, as he has been a consistent midfield contributor. Sam Cronin has been solid in central midfield next to Rafael Baca, and Tottenham loanee Simon Dawkins is always dangerous.

It's a tough matchup tonight, one that is unlikely to go well. Portland should have an extra man down the center of the park, much like against Seattle. Cronin and Baca pale compared to facing Alonso, but they are both solid players. This game will come down to San Jose dominating our outside backs and getting Wondo and Gordon excellent service. Dawkins will destroy Palmer all night long.

I won't be able to watch the match live, as I have to work. Without a television or digital cable, I have to wait until the MLS Live blackout is over to watch the full match. Can't I just pay more to eliminate the blackouts on a game-by-game basis? I really don't want to pay for the rest of the nonsense on regular or cable television just so I can watch a recorded version of the game in a timely fashion.


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