Portland come into the match after a two-game road trip against playoff-bound San Jose and Real Salt Lake, where the team showed well for themselves despite dropping five of six available points. The first road win remained elusive but there are signs of improvement all over the pitch, though Gavin's tactical decisions remain highly questionable. One of the big questions heading into this match will be which formation the team will start in. At San Jose we saw the team start with a flat four in midfield and then add a central defender late to try and hold onto the lead, while in Utah the team started with the 4-3-3, then moved into the midfield diamond after halftime with the Dike substitution before switching to a flat four with the Alexander switch. The second big question on everyone's mind is whether the controversial Rodney Wallace continues to start in Chara's absence and if so, does he play in the center of the midfield again. I think I can speak for everyone when I say, "Please, not again."
Given our success at home with the 4-3-3 formation, I think that the team is going to go with that formation again. I expect Dike to start over Mwanga as Danny failed to impress in his role alone up top Wednesday night. Bright is much more able to handle the lone striker role despite his deficiencies, as the first half showed. It's possible the team might start with two up top again, and if so, it will certainly be those two young guys. Songo'o will continue his excellent form on the left and Zizzo will soldier on at the right wing.
The midfield is a trickier prospect to predict as I don't think the team will risk bringing Diego back from in injury for what is essentially a meaningless match. He just returned to full training on Thursday, and with the next two matches on the road deciding the fate of the Cascadia Cup, there is little advantage to risk further injury or suspension to our most reliable defensive player. After Rodney's poor performance at center mid against the Royal Utah, he seems unlikely to feature there again, and I can't think of a reason why Alexander shouldn't be starting here. Of course, I'd prefer to see Alexander most every match so I may be a bit biased. Nagbe will, of course, remain the trequartista at the tip of the midfield triangle and Jewsbury will maintain his defensive midfield position. Hopefully the captain doesn't make as many foolish fouls in dangerous spots this time out.
I think that we will see Wallace start at left back because Gavin is enamored with him lately. It's also useful to note that he is among the top five earners in at the club, and if the team wants to offload the burden of overpaying a marginal player then they must showcase his skills for potential suitors. I would prefer the discipline of Smith at a left back position facing DeLeon and the overlapping Najar, but Wallace's speed is the logical counter to their threat. The centerback pairing will be Mosquera and Horst again, and Kimura will continue at right back. Joe Bendik will retain his role between the pipes.
DC's formation is less easy to predict these days with DeRo out for the year. I am uncertain as to whether Ben Olson will play a flat four midfield with two strikers, or if he plays a 4-5-1 as United did away to Philadelphia where they stole an away win. Portland is notoriously leaky at the back and two strikers would be more apt to exploit our weakness, but he is going to expect the Timbers to come out aggressively and will want to mitigate our chances of an early strike. As a result, I think he will trot out a conservative 4-2-3-1 and switch later on to a 4-4-2 after Portland goes up and he needs to try and get a goal back.
Leonard Pajoy will start up front by himself. Branko Boskovic will man the center of the midfield three and act as the playmaker in the middle, with Chris Pontius on the left wing and rookie Nick DeLeon on the right. Perry Kitchen and Marcelo Saragosa will form the defensive midfield pairing. Brandon McDonald and Dejan Jakovic have been the steady central defensive team this year for United, while Andy Najar has switched to right back successfully this year and Chris Korb has been the steady left back for the team. Mike Chabala was traded to DC to provide competition and depth behind Korb, but he doesn't seem to be making the gameday roster. Bill Hamid is United's starting keeper, formitable and
The key matchups in this game are going to be former teammmates at Akron, Darlington Nagbe v Perry Kitchen in the central midfield, and Portland's left side v DC's right side, ie Frank Songo'o and Rodney Wallace v Nick DeLeon v Andy Najar. Nagbe's ability to best his buddy will be key to the Timbers controlling the tempo of the match, but the flank battle will determine the goals. Songo'o has the potential to destroy the young right side of United, and if he does so then it will allow Wallace to get forward, only increasing the attacking verve feedback loop. This is dangerous if he's caught out of position on the counter because Wallace may be fast but DeLeon and Najar are both fast and very dangerous on the ball.
I'm also worried about Pontius taking on Kimura. Chris is their most dangerous player with DeRosario out, and he definitely has the potential to cause damage when he gets on the ball. Alexander and Mosquera will be key to controlling his effectiveness after he inevitably beats Kimura a dozen times.
Substitutions are going to be very interesting and will most defintely depend greatly on the scoreline at the half and thereafter. I'm going to predict Songo'o assists Nagbe early in the first half, and United won't score before the half, but they will score after Olson adjusts to a two striker formation at halftime and catches Portland on the counter with Pontius feeding Santos after he comes on for Saragosa and United go 4-4-2.
Mwanga will come on for Alexander after United scores and Portland shifts to a 4-4-2 themselves. (I wouldn't do this because United's switch gives Portland the midfield advantage - and hence Nagbe more time and space on the ball. I would put Alhassan in for Alexander instead and invert the midfield triangle to overload Kitchen and Boskovic, who already have taken on more defensive responsibilities after Olson's switch. I don't think Gavin will be this smart though.) Despite my disagreement with the coach's tactics, Zizzo will find Dike once again after Mwanga makes a run that isolates Bright on a single defender, and he will ripple the net a fourth time this season.
Olson will attempt to stop the bleeding and bring in Lewis Neal for Boskovic, while Gavin pushes his luck and goes more aggressive, this time adding Alhassan for Kimura and pushing Zizzo back to the defensive line again. With a lead at home, I would just let the lineup playout and expect another goal out of Nagbe, Mwanga, or Songo'o to appear thanks to our superior control of possession. But Zizzo at right back is a very interesting proposition, and given the meaningless nature of the match for Portland, it's very likely that this switch will be made for better or for worse.
Olsen's final gambit will be to take off the tiring Pajoy for useless DP Hamdi Salihi late on, with Gavin responding by removing Dike in favor of putting Brunner in the defense. Despite how poor that worked out last time, Portland will hold on the for the win. 2-1
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