Monday, October 8, 2012
Seattle Smashes
I'm sorry but I cannot provide an analysis of this game. I'm disgusted by the whole thing, and I cannot force myself to watch the thing again in order to give you any insight except we need to fire Gavin Wilkinson as soon as possible. Lineup decisions are always suspect and his substitutions are atrocious. #GWout NOW
Sunday, September 30, 2012
A Tale of Two Defenders: The David Horst Story
For a man who made many phenomenal tackles last night, David Horst lost his team two points last night, and a first ever league win over D.C. United, because he lost his focus and jumped to block a cross with his arm outstretched instead of close to his body. The controversial call was made by the line ref who immediately suffered the ire of the Portland defenders, as Bendik, Futty, and Horst all rushed over to yell at him. Futty eventually suffered a yellow for their complaints; Pontius buried the PK.
Gavin made only one change to the lineup he went with against RSL, starting Dike alone up top over Mwanga. Wallace continued in center midfield in Chara's absence. Mosquera would come up lame with a hamstring injury in the middle of the first half so Futty made a rare appearance off the bench.
Ben Olsen made a few changes to the formation I anticipated, picking Lewis Neal over Branko Boskovic to start. He also moved Pontius from the left wing into the middle of the midfield front three, switched Nick DeLeon to the left and put Lewis Neal on the right side. The rest of the lineup remained unchanged.
The boys in green and white started the match slowly, failing to string together consistent possession. Najar and Neal were combining well on down the flank and causing Songo'o and Smith lots of trouble. Portland read the game well and made a switch, moving Songo'o into the middle. That was the smart part of the move - the dumb part of the move involved moving Nagbe outside in his place instead of Wallace. Nonetheless, Songo'o immediately started bossing the game and Nagbe shut down Najar.
Portland created four good chances after the change. The first happened after a smart move by Zizzo to take a throw-in quickly with Dike in an otherwise offsides position, who took his shot wide. Zizzo was busy again not much later when he split two defenders and squared it to Dike in the box, but McDonald got to it first hit it directly to Hamid. Bright intercepted a lazy pass along the backline but didn't have the technical skills to beat the two defenders for a clear look after he didn't shoot with his first touch. The referee decided a few minutes later that inside the passing triangles during the run of play would be a good place to position himself, getting repeatedly caught up in play, eventually springing Nagbe for a great shot which Hamid parried fantastically. The ball spun up and toward the goal, but Hamid was able to snag it off the line.
So into the locker rooms the team went, tied up still at zeros. United could be happy that they had held the Timbers scoreless, but knowing they need to make some kind of adjustment to the tactical switch made by the Portland bench. The Timbers would enter the half hungry for the goal they seemed close to a few times. But neither team would make any wholesale changes at the half.
The second half played out much like the first until Horst's ill conceived spread eagle jump gave the visitors the lead at the hour. The match would proceed with the home side pissed off and energized to make a statement. It found one after another quarter hour when Steven Smith intercepted a poor header by Najar out of the back. He worked a give-and-go with Nagbe, first timing a ball into the box towards Dike. They both would have been awarded the assist if Najar hadn't gotten there first, cradling the ball under his armpit for a while (where's the whistle for the handball mister blind and incompetant referee) before Dike could poke it away. His pivot and rocket finish to the roof of the net were picture perfect.
It wasn't long after the goal when Pajoy came off for Salihi, and then Lewis Neal was removed for Boskovic. Portland decided to throw numbers forward, removing Kimura for Mwanga, moving Zizzo to right back. Mwanga did nothing with his cameo, making one successful pass and losing possession once, but Zizzo continued to ravage the right flank. He was replaced late by Brent Richards, who can throw the ball over half way across the pitch and has an amazing vertical leap. Richards never really got to showcase his skills as his time was so limited. It felt like he was coming on for mayble one or two maybe chances. Olsen took off DeLeon at the end to lock down the defense with Robbie Russell.
All the changes came to nothing, with neither team really looking any more dangerous nor generating any really good chances. The team was hard done by the referee this match, and I'm not talking about the penalty - though I screamed bullshit as loud and as long as anyone - nor about Songo'o trying to pick the ball off Hamid's foot. Whether what Franck did specifically is allowed completely depends on the local federation's interpretation of FIFA's rules. The run of play was fairly even, from my vantage point in section 202 row G, but the stats say DC won more duels while Portland held onto the ball a little more. I think the former stat is a more meaningful metric than the later, as a duel won anywhere on the field is always a good thing, while possession across the back line extensively only indicates offensive frustration or futility. Some duels are more meaningful than others but none are meaningless; sometimes possession becomes fairly meaningless.
I can't wait for the match in Seattle this weekend. Stay tuned for a Cascadia Cup analysis as well as a preview for the Seattle match.
Gavin made only one change to the lineup he went with against RSL, starting Dike alone up top over Mwanga. Wallace continued in center midfield in Chara's absence. Mosquera would come up lame with a hamstring injury in the middle of the first half so Futty made a rare appearance off the bench.
Ben Olsen made a few changes to the formation I anticipated, picking Lewis Neal over Branko Boskovic to start. He also moved Pontius from the left wing into the middle of the midfield front three, switched Nick DeLeon to the left and put Lewis Neal on the right side. The rest of the lineup remained unchanged.
The boys in green and white started the match slowly, failing to string together consistent possession. Najar and Neal were combining well on down the flank and causing Songo'o and Smith lots of trouble. Portland read the game well and made a switch, moving Songo'o into the middle. That was the smart part of the move - the dumb part of the move involved moving Nagbe outside in his place instead of Wallace. Nonetheless, Songo'o immediately started bossing the game and Nagbe shut down Najar.
Portland created four good chances after the change. The first happened after a smart move by Zizzo to take a throw-in quickly with Dike in an otherwise offsides position, who took his shot wide. Zizzo was busy again not much later when he split two defenders and squared it to Dike in the box, but McDonald got to it first hit it directly to Hamid. Bright intercepted a lazy pass along the backline but didn't have the technical skills to beat the two defenders for a clear look after he didn't shoot with his first touch. The referee decided a few minutes later that inside the passing triangles during the run of play would be a good place to position himself, getting repeatedly caught up in play, eventually springing Nagbe for a great shot which Hamid parried fantastically. The ball spun up and toward the goal, but Hamid was able to snag it off the line.
So into the locker rooms the team went, tied up still at zeros. United could be happy that they had held the Timbers scoreless, but knowing they need to make some kind of adjustment to the tactical switch made by the Portland bench. The Timbers would enter the half hungry for the goal they seemed close to a few times. But neither team would make any wholesale changes at the half.
The second half played out much like the first until Horst's ill conceived spread eagle jump gave the visitors the lead at the hour. The match would proceed with the home side pissed off and energized to make a statement. It found one after another quarter hour when Steven Smith intercepted a poor header by Najar out of the back. He worked a give-and-go with Nagbe, first timing a ball into the box towards Dike. They both would have been awarded the assist if Najar hadn't gotten there first, cradling the ball under his armpit for a while (where's the whistle for the handball mister blind and incompetant referee) before Dike could poke it away. His pivot and rocket finish to the roof of the net were picture perfect.
It wasn't long after the goal when Pajoy came off for Salihi, and then Lewis Neal was removed for Boskovic. Portland decided to throw numbers forward, removing Kimura for Mwanga, moving Zizzo to right back. Mwanga did nothing with his cameo, making one successful pass and losing possession once, but Zizzo continued to ravage the right flank. He was replaced late by Brent Richards, who can throw the ball over half way across the pitch and has an amazing vertical leap. Richards never really got to showcase his skills as his time was so limited. It felt like he was coming on for mayble one or two maybe chances. Olsen took off DeLeon at the end to lock down the defense with Robbie Russell.
All the changes came to nothing, with neither team really looking any more dangerous nor generating any really good chances. The team was hard done by the referee this match, and I'm not talking about the penalty - though I screamed bullshit as loud and as long as anyone - nor about Songo'o trying to pick the ball off Hamid's foot. Whether what Franck did specifically is allowed completely depends on the local federation's interpretation of FIFA's rules. The run of play was fairly even, from my vantage point in section 202 row G, but the stats say DC won more duels while Portland held onto the ball a little more. I think the former stat is a more meaningful metric than the later, as a duel won anywhere on the field is always a good thing, while possession across the back line extensively only indicates offensive frustration or futility. Some duels are more meaningful than others but none are meaningless; sometimes possession becomes fairly meaningless.
I can't wait for the match in Seattle this weekend. Stay tuned for a Cascadia Cup analysis as well as a preview for the Seattle match.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Hosting District of Columbia United
Today marks the occasion of the final game against Eastern Conference opposition and the second to last home match of the season. DC needs a win to keep pace in the playoff race, currently sitting tied on points with New York for third place. They have a four point lead over the Dynamo and five points over the Crew, but will want to steal that third place spot to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs. United have won their last three in a row, all since the injury to talisman Dwayne DeRosario, but will be sure to face a stiff challenge over Tanner Creek tonight.
Portland come into the match after a two-game road trip against playoff-bound San Jose and Real Salt Lake, where the team showed well for themselves despite dropping five of six available points. The first road win remained elusive but there are signs of improvement all over the pitch, though Gavin's tactical decisions remain highly questionable. One of the big questions heading into this match will be which formation the team will start in. At San Jose we saw the team start with a flat four in midfield and then add a central defender late to try and hold onto the lead, while in Utah the team started with the 4-3-3, then moved into the midfield diamond after halftime with the Dike substitution before switching to a flat four with the Alexander switch. The second big question on everyone's mind is whether the controversial Rodney Wallace continues to start in Chara's absence and if so, does he play in the center of the midfield again. I think I can speak for everyone when I say, "Please, not again."
Given our success at home with the 4-3-3 formation, I think that the team is going to go with that formation again. I expect Dike to start over Mwanga as Danny failed to impress in his role alone up top Wednesday night. Bright is much more able to handle the lone striker role despite his deficiencies, as the first half showed. It's possible the team might start with two up top again, and if so, it will certainly be those two young guys. Songo'o will continue his excellent form on the left and Zizzo will soldier on at the right wing.
The midfield is a trickier prospect to predict as I don't think the team will risk bringing Diego back from in injury for what is essentially a meaningless match. He just returned to full training on Thursday, and with the next two matches on the road deciding the fate of the Cascadia Cup, there is little advantage to risk further injury or suspension to our most reliable defensive player. After Rodney's poor performance at center mid against the Royal Utah, he seems unlikely to feature there again, and I can't think of a reason why Alexander shouldn't be starting here. Of course, I'd prefer to see Alexander most every match so I may be a bit biased. Nagbe will, of course, remain the trequartista at the tip of the midfield triangle and Jewsbury will maintain his defensive midfield position. Hopefully the captain doesn't make as many foolish fouls in dangerous spots this time out.
I think that we will see Wallace start at left back because Gavin is enamored with him lately. It's also useful to note that he is among the top five earners in at the club, and if the team wants to offload the burden of overpaying a marginal player then they must showcase his skills for potential suitors. I would prefer the discipline of Smith at a left back position facing DeLeon and the overlapping Najar, but Wallace's speed is the logical counter to their threat. The centerback pairing will be Mosquera and Horst again, and Kimura will continue at right back. Joe Bendik will retain his role between the pipes.
DC's formation is less easy to predict these days with DeRo out for the year. I am uncertain as to whether Ben Olson will play a flat four midfield with two strikers, or if he plays a 4-5-1 as United did away to Philadelphia where they stole an away win. Portland is notoriously leaky at the back and two strikers would be more apt to exploit our weakness, but he is going to expect the Timbers to come out aggressively and will want to mitigate our chances of an early strike. As a result, I think he will trot out a conservative 4-2-3-1 and switch later on to a 4-4-2 after Portland goes up and he needs to try and get a goal back.
Leonard Pajoy will start up front by himself. Branko Boskovic will man the center of the midfield three and act as the playmaker in the middle, with Chris Pontius on the left wing and rookie Nick DeLeon on the right. Perry Kitchen and Marcelo Saragosa will form the defensive midfield pairing. Brandon McDonald and Dejan Jakovic have been the steady central defensive team this year for United, while Andy Najar has switched to right back successfully this year and Chris Korb has been the steady left back for the team. Mike Chabala was traded to DC to provide competition and depth behind Korb, but he doesn't seem to be making the gameday roster. Bill Hamid is United's starting keeper, formitable and
The key matchups in this game are going to be former teammmates at Akron, Darlington Nagbe v Perry Kitchen in the central midfield, and Portland's left side v DC's right side, ie Frank Songo'o and Rodney Wallace v Nick DeLeon v Andy Najar. Nagbe's ability to best his buddy will be key to the Timbers controlling the tempo of the match, but the flank battle will determine the goals. Songo'o has the potential to destroy the young right side of United, and if he does so then it will allow Wallace to get forward, only increasing the attacking verve feedback loop. This is dangerous if he's caught out of position on the counter because Wallace may be fast but DeLeon and Najar are both fast and very dangerous on the ball.
I'm also worried about Pontius taking on Kimura. Chris is their most dangerous player with DeRosario out, and he definitely has the potential to cause damage when he gets on the ball. Alexander and Mosquera will be key to controlling his effectiveness after he inevitably beats Kimura a dozen times.
Substitutions are going to be very interesting and will most defintely depend greatly on the scoreline at the half and thereafter. I'm going to predict Songo'o assists Nagbe early in the first half, and United won't score before the half, but they will score after Olson adjusts to a two striker formation at halftime and catches Portland on the counter with Pontius feeding Santos after he comes on for Saragosa and United go 4-4-2.
Mwanga will come on for Alexander after United scores and Portland shifts to a 4-4-2 themselves. (I wouldn't do this because United's switch gives Portland the midfield advantage - and hence Nagbe more time and space on the ball. I would put Alhassan in for Alexander instead and invert the midfield triangle to overload Kitchen and Boskovic, who already have taken on more defensive responsibilities after Olson's switch. I don't think Gavin will be this smart though.) Despite my disagreement with the coach's tactics, Zizzo will find Dike once again after Mwanga makes a run that isolates Bright on a single defender, and he will ripple the net a fourth time this season.
Olson will attempt to stop the bleeding and bring in Lewis Neal for Boskovic, while Gavin pushes his luck and goes more aggressive, this time adding Alhassan for Kimura and pushing Zizzo back to the defensive line again. With a lead at home, I would just let the lineup playout and expect another goal out of Nagbe, Mwanga, or Songo'o to appear thanks to our superior control of possession. But Zizzo at right back is a very interesting proposition, and given the meaningless nature of the match for Portland, it's very likely that this switch will be made for better or for worse.
Olsen's final gambit will be to take off the tiring Pajoy for useless DP Hamdi Salihi late on, with Gavin responding by removing Dike in favor of putting Brunner in the defense. Despite how poor that worked out last time, Portland will hold on the for the win. 2-1
Portland come into the match after a two-game road trip against playoff-bound San Jose and Real Salt Lake, where the team showed well for themselves despite dropping five of six available points. The first road win remained elusive but there are signs of improvement all over the pitch, though Gavin's tactical decisions remain highly questionable. One of the big questions heading into this match will be which formation the team will start in. At San Jose we saw the team start with a flat four in midfield and then add a central defender late to try and hold onto the lead, while in Utah the team started with the 4-3-3, then moved into the midfield diamond after halftime with the Dike substitution before switching to a flat four with the Alexander switch. The second big question on everyone's mind is whether the controversial Rodney Wallace continues to start in Chara's absence and if so, does he play in the center of the midfield again. I think I can speak for everyone when I say, "Please, not again."
Given our success at home with the 4-3-3 formation, I think that the team is going to go with that formation again. I expect Dike to start over Mwanga as Danny failed to impress in his role alone up top Wednesday night. Bright is much more able to handle the lone striker role despite his deficiencies, as the first half showed. It's possible the team might start with two up top again, and if so, it will certainly be those two young guys. Songo'o will continue his excellent form on the left and Zizzo will soldier on at the right wing.
The midfield is a trickier prospect to predict as I don't think the team will risk bringing Diego back from in injury for what is essentially a meaningless match. He just returned to full training on Thursday, and with the next two matches on the road deciding the fate of the Cascadia Cup, there is little advantage to risk further injury or suspension to our most reliable defensive player. After Rodney's poor performance at center mid against the Royal Utah, he seems unlikely to feature there again, and I can't think of a reason why Alexander shouldn't be starting here. Of course, I'd prefer to see Alexander most every match so I may be a bit biased. Nagbe will, of course, remain the trequartista at the tip of the midfield triangle and Jewsbury will maintain his defensive midfield position. Hopefully the captain doesn't make as many foolish fouls in dangerous spots this time out.
I think that we will see Wallace start at left back because Gavin is enamored with him lately. It's also useful to note that he is among the top five earners in at the club, and if the team wants to offload the burden of overpaying a marginal player then they must showcase his skills for potential suitors. I would prefer the discipline of Smith at a left back position facing DeLeon and the overlapping Najar, but Wallace's speed is the logical counter to their threat. The centerback pairing will be Mosquera and Horst again, and Kimura will continue at right back. Joe Bendik will retain his role between the pipes.
DC's formation is less easy to predict these days with DeRo out for the year. I am uncertain as to whether Ben Olson will play a flat four midfield with two strikers, or if he plays a 4-5-1 as United did away to Philadelphia where they stole an away win. Portland is notoriously leaky at the back and two strikers would be more apt to exploit our weakness, but he is going to expect the Timbers to come out aggressively and will want to mitigate our chances of an early strike. As a result, I think he will trot out a conservative 4-2-3-1 and switch later on to a 4-4-2 after Portland goes up and he needs to try and get a goal back.
Leonard Pajoy will start up front by himself. Branko Boskovic will man the center of the midfield three and act as the playmaker in the middle, with Chris Pontius on the left wing and rookie Nick DeLeon on the right. Perry Kitchen and Marcelo Saragosa will form the defensive midfield pairing. Brandon McDonald and Dejan Jakovic have been the steady central defensive team this year for United, while Andy Najar has switched to right back successfully this year and Chris Korb has been the steady left back for the team. Mike Chabala was traded to DC to provide competition and depth behind Korb, but he doesn't seem to be making the gameday roster. Bill Hamid is United's starting keeper, formitable and
The key matchups in this game are going to be former teammmates at Akron, Darlington Nagbe v Perry Kitchen in the central midfield, and Portland's left side v DC's right side, ie Frank Songo'o and Rodney Wallace v Nick DeLeon v Andy Najar. Nagbe's ability to best his buddy will be key to the Timbers controlling the tempo of the match, but the flank battle will determine the goals. Songo'o has the potential to destroy the young right side of United, and if he does so then it will allow Wallace to get forward, only increasing the attacking verve feedback loop. This is dangerous if he's caught out of position on the counter because Wallace may be fast but DeLeon and Najar are both fast and very dangerous on the ball.
I'm also worried about Pontius taking on Kimura. Chris is their most dangerous player with DeRosario out, and he definitely has the potential to cause damage when he gets on the ball. Alexander and Mosquera will be key to controlling his effectiveness after he inevitably beats Kimura a dozen times.
Substitutions are going to be very interesting and will most defintely depend greatly on the scoreline at the half and thereafter. I'm going to predict Songo'o assists Nagbe early in the first half, and United won't score before the half, but they will score after Olson adjusts to a two striker formation at halftime and catches Portland on the counter with Pontius feeding Santos after he comes on for Saragosa and United go 4-4-2.
Mwanga will come on for Alexander after United scores and Portland shifts to a 4-4-2 themselves. (I wouldn't do this because United's switch gives Portland the midfield advantage - and hence Nagbe more time and space on the ball. I would put Alhassan in for Alexander instead and invert the midfield triangle to overload Kitchen and Boskovic, who already have taken on more defensive responsibilities after Olson's switch. I don't think Gavin will be this smart though.) Despite my disagreement with the coach's tactics, Zizzo will find Dike once again after Mwanga makes a run that isolates Bright on a single defender, and he will ripple the net a fourth time this season.
Olson will attempt to stop the bleeding and bring in Lewis Neal for Boskovic, while Gavin pushes his luck and goes more aggressive, this time adding Alhassan for Kimura and pushing Zizzo back to the defensive line again. With a lead at home, I would just let the lineup playout and expect another goal out of Nagbe, Mwanga, or Songo'o to appear thanks to our superior control of possession. But Zizzo at right back is a very interesting proposition, and given the meaningless nature of the match for Portland, it's very likely that this switch will be made for better or for worse.
Olsen's final gambit will be to take off the tiring Pajoy for useless DP Hamdi Salihi late on, with Gavin responding by removing Dike in favor of putting Brunner in the defense. Despite how poor that worked out last time, Portland will hold on the for the win. 2-1
Monday, September 24, 2012
48 hour blackout is torture
I still haven't been able to watch Saturday's match in Salt Lake City, Utah, but I should be able to get my watch on tonight. I've watched the highlights a few times and a few things stuck in my mind.
First of all, why did Danny Mwanga move out of the way when the ball came his way? Isn't the point of the wall to stop balls like that from getting through? Bendik wasn't able to see that the ball was headed through the gap until it was too late.
Second, seriously Jack! Why would you foul him a second time just outside the box? Did you forget that they have one of the best set piece takers in the league, that you had your third-string keeper on, or that the previous time you did this they scored? The first goal may have been Mwanga's fault but this one is squarely on your shoulders.
Third, I'm happy to see that Gavin returned to the 4-3-3, and that Zizzo did a great job on the wing again after not finding the pitch on Wednesday. The team clearly enjoyed better possession as a result and were able to create more out of the run of play, as opposed to being effective only on the counter-attack as the team was in San Jose.
But I'm unhappy to see the chaos elemental Rodney Wallace continue to deputize for Chara in central midfield. His switch to left back at the half was a more logical placement for him, but I still think the only place he should play is on the wings as a counter to a speedy creative wing or back. He is a better defender than most wide midfielders on the team, and is definitely faster than most people in the league, but he is not disciplined enough on the pitch to merit a role in the actual back line or shielding the central defenders. Putting him out wide in the midfield or as a winger allows for him to make mistakes that don't immediately result in a goal, but he can also be used to frustrate another team's attacking wide players. Putting him the middle requires him to be in position and alert all the time as any mistake can lead to an easy chance in the box. I'll try to find specific examples in the RSL game after I get to watch it tonight.
Gavin is starting Wallace instead of playing Eric Alexander in the middle with Jewsbury and Nagbe. Eric is exactly all of the things Rodney is not: composed on the ball, disciplined, alert and positionally intelligent. I just cannot understand why Alexander is not playing over Wallace, except that Rodney scored the equalizer against Seattle. That reward has to have worn off at this point after two mediocre performances this week. Alexander combines better with Nagbe as well, and is able to play more of the fluid style the formation requires.
First of all, why did Danny Mwanga move out of the way when the ball came his way? Isn't the point of the wall to stop balls like that from getting through? Bendik wasn't able to see that the ball was headed through the gap until it was too late.
Second, seriously Jack! Why would you foul him a second time just outside the box? Did you forget that they have one of the best set piece takers in the league, that you had your third-string keeper on, or that the previous time you did this they scored? The first goal may have been Mwanga's fault but this one is squarely on your shoulders.
Third, I'm happy to see that Gavin returned to the 4-3-3, and that Zizzo did a great job on the wing again after not finding the pitch on Wednesday. The team clearly enjoyed better possession as a result and were able to create more out of the run of play, as opposed to being effective only on the counter-attack as the team was in San Jose.
But I'm unhappy to see the chaos elemental Rodney Wallace continue to deputize for Chara in central midfield. His switch to left back at the half was a more logical placement for him, but I still think the only place he should play is on the wings as a counter to a speedy creative wing or back. He is a better defender than most wide midfielders on the team, and is definitely faster than most people in the league, but he is not disciplined enough on the pitch to merit a role in the actual back line or shielding the central defenders. Putting him out wide in the midfield or as a winger allows for him to make mistakes that don't immediately result in a goal, but he can also be used to frustrate another team's attacking wide players. Putting him the middle requires him to be in position and alert all the time as any mistake can lead to an easy chance in the box. I'll try to find specific examples in the RSL game after I get to watch it tonight.
Gavin is starting Wallace instead of playing Eric Alexander in the middle with Jewsbury and Nagbe. Eric is exactly all of the things Rodney is not: composed on the ball, disciplined, alert and positionally intelligent. I just cannot understand why Alexander is not playing over Wallace, except that Rodney scored the equalizer against Seattle. That reward has to have worn off at this point after two mediocre performances this week. Alexander combines better with Nagbe as well, and is able to play more of the fluid style the formation requires.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Timbers in a Royal way at Salt Lake
The good green and white should return tonight against the worst named team in MLS. Real Salt Lake come into this match in a dogfight for second place in the west with Sounders FC and LA Galaxy. RSL does not want to finish fourth and face the in-form Dallas in the first round (who will overtake Vancouver for the final spot), and so will come into the match motivated to get the win at home. Portland, however, come into the match reeling after giving up a two goal lead in stoppage time and then failing to get the winner on a perfect chance. (Or a call, that's two missed penalties in two consecutive matches.)
Portland ran out a misguided 4-4-2 against San Jose on Wednesday, and I'm going to hope that Gavin decides to revert to the 4-3-3, especially given the success against Seattle's midfield diamond. Dike's miss should cause him to be benched in favor of Mwanga starting up top alone. Nagbe reverts to the tip of the midfield triangle, pushed even higher than normal to compensate for Mwanga's need for a partner. Songo'o will continue his excellent work on the left, and Zizzo will return to the lineup on the right. Alhassan deserves a chance to start again, and it should come here after Wallace's mediocre showing against the 'Quakes. He should start in the center of the midfield and act as a deeper lying playmaker after showing his defensive chops in the reserve match. With Nagbe and Mwanga ahead of him, this should occupy defenders and free up space for him to operate.
Jewbury will anchor the base of the midfield triangle and shield the defense. Brunner needs to get a start after coming back from his injury, and will likely come in for either Horst or Mosquera. I'm going to guess Horst will sit the bench because he has been the better defender lately and that seems about par for the course with regards to Gavin's decision making. Palmer hurt himself, and also sucked, so Kimura will start at the right with Smith keepin' on at the left. Bendik will get his second career MLS start.
Alvaro Saborio is most likely out with a shoulder injury, so Paulo, Jr. will likely start in his place alongside Fabian Espindola. Javier Morales starts at the tip of the midfield diamond behind them, finding his form after a long injury layoff. Kyle Beckerman anchors the base of the diamond with Grabavoy on the left and Johnson on the right. Olave and Borchers are both healthy again, and should start in the center of the defense. Wingert plays on the left and Beltran on the right, with Rimando rounding out the defense in goal.
Substitutions are going to be fairly easy if Gavin somehow goes with this lineup. Alexander should come in for the least effective midfielder or wide forward, with Alhassan sliding out wide if he comes on for one of the wide players. Dike will come in for Mwanga at some point, and I think we might see Fucito get a chance for a run out at wide forward as Songo'o is likely to be exhausted by the end of this match. Wallace may get the chance instead, but I cannot see the downside to giving Mike his chance.
RSL like to bring in Luis Gil and Johnny Steele, usually for the wide players. Emilio Bonfigli will likely come in for Paulo Jr. early in the second half, but won't have much more of an influence than his teammate. Luis Gil, however, will be a difference maker in the game for Salt Lake.
I haven't really had too much time to think about the match, but it seems that the key here should be Nagbe's ability to get behind Beckerman and Alhassan's ability to play two-way ball the entire game. If Songo'o continues his good work against Johnson and Beltran, this will draw the captain out of position, giving Nagbe and Alhassan room to work. Conversely, Zizzo could return to top form and torch Grabavoy and Wingert, which would also draw the defensive pivot out of position. And if both players are on their game, expect the chances to come on the counter with a respectable consistency. Salt Lake is going to control the game, so the Timbers need to maintain their defensive shape, track runners and maintain proper marking on set pieces. If the finishing doesn't fail us, as it did at the end of the last match, this trip to Utah should be much brighter than the 3-0 loss that immediately proceeded Spencer's firing. I don't think I can go as far as to predict a win, but scraping a goal late to equalize could be a reasonable result. 2-2 final score.
Another Draw on the Road
Chris Wondolowski cancelled out Danny Mwanga's brace with a stoppage time goal to thwart what looked to be Portland's first win on the road. The game was dominated by San Jose for the entire match. Gavin trotted out a flat 4-4-2, matching Frank Yallop's preferred formation. This switch in formation wasn't remotely effective tactically nor did players do well played somewhat out of position. The switch to the 4-4-2 clearly confused the team out of the gate, so San Jose completely controlled most of the first half.
After a bit of back and forth to start the match, with Boyd seeing a header go wide, Horst was forced to clear a shot off the line early, with questions about whether it had crossed the line strengthening the case for goal-line technology in soccer. When Dike came on for the injured Scotsman, Portland seemed to figure out their counterattack. In this formation, and against San Jose, Portland was never going to control possession, but Songo'o started to exert his influence on the left while Nagbe and Wallace started working well together on the right side, and Dike's pace and brutality keeping the defenders in check better than Boyd's better skill on the ball. He immediately put a head into a Bernardez, giving warning that a much larger and more aggressive player had now come onto the field. Minutes later Bendik gave his partner Opara an elbow to the back of the head as he came out to to meet a cross, showing our toughness at the front and the back and serving as a warning to Lenhart to watch himself.
After a San Jose give-away in midfield, Wallace and Mwanga worked a give and go to open the scoring right before the break. It was a good piece of footwork, first making a nice run between the defenders as they over committed, then rounding the keeper with composure. It was Danny's second goal of the year, his first coming against San Jose at home in July. The teams went into the locker rooms with Portland holding a rare lead on the road.
The second half saw much of the same, the Earthquakes dominating the game but not able to break through the defense. Horst was looking particularly effective against Lenhart in the middle, winning most of the headers that were sent in his direction. Wondo came in just before the hour mark, and immediately sparked the San Jose attack, which had become somewhat stagnant despite the control they exerted across the pitch. But it would be Portland who would score next, against all odds, and it was again on the break when Portland struck, as Songo'o dribbled down the field on the counter, holding off defenders before feeding Danny on the left. He took a few touches to his right and blasted a shot into the upper right, putting Portland up two goals just after the hour mark.
Gordon immediately came on after the goal. Shortly after he won a header, which Lenhart poked over to Wondo, who took a touch and beat Bendik at the far post. The lead was cut to one, with the 'Quakes fired up and ready to score again. The remainder of regulation time saw a handful of crazy scrums in the box, with Bendik coming up big a few times and San Jose coming close a few more. But all our hearts would break when Mosquera expertly flicked on to Wondo at the back post two minutes into stoppage time, who headed back across and into the goal - catching Bendik in an impossible position. It was one of the single worst instances of clearance and marking this year. We had three centerbacks, and they had three strikers, so there is no reason anyone should ever be unmarked.
Portland had one golden chance at the end, as Songo'o made another brilliant run with the ball downfield, literally holding off Victor Bernardez, then squaring the ball to the three red jerseys in the box. Jack was just behind Bright, with Nagbe a few yards to his right. Dike took the shot just as Lenhart tackled him from behind, putting it just wide right. It looked like a penalty to me, Lenhart took out his feet in the box, and never touched the ball. Not sure at all what the referee was looking at there, but it really shouldn't have mattered. Dike should have felt the pressure from behind and let the ball roll through for Nagbe or Jewsbury. How awesome would it have been if he just stopped dead in his tracks and took out Lenhart just as Nagbe slots in the winner. Instead he flubbed the shot and ruined a perfect attempt. Franck was livid at the wastefulness of his game-winning assist-to-be.
I predicted that the squad would maintain it's shape while giving some different faces a chance to prove themselves. This made sense given the success of the new formation, especially against teams playing a 4-4-2, which everyone could have told you San Jose would trot out. I'll have to guess that it was to give Mwanga a proper strike partner since he does not like being alone up top. Kris Boyd came back into the starting lineup next to Danny, but left after 13 minutes with a groin strain, injuring himself in the only decent moment he had on the pitch. Dike came in for him, and looked more dangerous, if less competant on the ball.
Portland matched San Jose's flat four midfield as Songo'o retained his role on the left and Jack stuck it out in the middle. Gavin moved Darlington out wide right and put Rodney in the middle of the pitch. It was a pretty strange move since Nagbe has become so successful after moving to the middle of the midfield where he can see more of the ball and control the offense instead of waiting for it to come to him. Rodney did okay for himself, but I think he would have been the more effective player on the right side, even with his left foot. If this were FIFA13, and Nagbe is a 82 and Wallace is a 75 in their first choice positions, switching them reduces their scores by 5-10 points. It is about optimizing your personnel, something this team has struggled with since forever.
Steven Smith returned to the lineup for Portland after his suspension, and Lovel Palmer started at right back for Kimura. Horst and Mosquera remained in the middle. Lovel did a poor job, as usual, but no worse than Kosuke does every time out. He did seem to do a better job of blocking crosses into the box than Kimura did against Seattle and Colorado, but that may just be a feature of Corrales or Morrow being less dangerous than Zakuani or Gonzalez. Palmer came out injured at the end of the match however, and a mask-less Kimura reprised his role on the backline.
On the other end of the field, Yallop gave Wondo and Gordon a breather, starting super-sub Lenhart for a change. Simon Dawkins played just off him as the second in their 4-4-2. Lenhart was neutralized well by Horst's man-marking, again showing that when he is turned on David can be an excellent defender. Simon Dawkins wasn't particularly effective as a striker and looked much more comfortable after Wondolowski came in and he moved to the wing.
San Jose started captain Ramiro Corrales on the left side of midfield, and he made successful runs against Palmer all night. The center of the midfield featured the workhorse Sam Cronin and playmaker Rafael Baca, who together regularly tore apart Jewsbury and Wallace. Mehdi Ballouchy started on the right with Dawkins up top, and didn't bring a whole lot to the game. He had his hands full with Songo'o on that side of the field, not able to stop Franck's runs and also not able to make successful forays himself.
Ike Opara returned to the back line, partnering with Victor Bernardez in the middle. Justin Morrow started on the left and Beitashour put in another excellent shift on the right. Busch retained his role between the posts. The defense didn't have a ton to do against a Portland team in possession, but they did not do well to react to the Timbers counterattacks. The Timbers scored twice on the counter and should have won the match on the counter as well, but for Dike's terrible miss.
The substitutions in this match really showed why Gavin should not be a head coach. Looking past the poor decision to start with a 4-4-2, his ineptitude was shown by the subsequent failure to make any changes at halftime. Despite having the lead, Portland had conceded 64% of possession to San Jose - something should have changed. Yallop reacted to Mwanga's second strike to bring in Wondo for Ballouchy and move Dawkins to the right. This didn't change the team's shape but improved their threat from the wing and in the box. Six minutes later when Alan Gordon entered the match for Baca, the 'Quakes shifted from the 4-4-2 into a 4-3-1-2, with Wondo playing just behind the two big targets and Cronin alone in the middle. The switch gave Portland more of the ball, but every time San Jose touched the ball it was a mad scramble to contain their attack. And Nagbe was still stuck on the wing instead of where he should have been, isolated against Cronin in the middle.
Gavin didn't react to the switch, which was immediately obvious, for another 20 minutes. Finally the team changed shape to deal with the three striker threat, with Brunner coming in for Mwanga at 85', moving Portland into a 5-4-1. Theoretically this switch would have worked, and it mostly did until Mosquera fed an otherwise offsides and totally unmarked Wondo. It was really too late though, and the team had already exhausted itself emotionally with all of the frantic clearances of the preceding twenty minutes.
When Gordon came on, the move should have been to remove Mwanga for Alexander right then, or at the latest after the first goal. Move Nagbe to the middle and give Wallace the job of marking Simon Dawkins, who was much more effective than Ballouchy. This frees up Jack to man-mark Wondolowski, so the centerbacks can focus on the big target forwards ahead of him, and puts a possession player in the middle to counter Cronin. Instead, Wondo dropped in and out of the midfield, causing confusion among the defense. Jack and Rodney inexpertly picked him up but lost him again as he drifted towards the front and overloading the defense. Nagbe was forced to defend Dawkins on the wing, putting him in poor position to create on the counter, which was obviously the only way the team was going to do anything positive. When Brunner came on, the backline was in shambles and the transition from two to three center defenders was not a smooth one.
A few final thoughts. I thought it was very encouraging to see Danny Mwanga really exert an influence over a match. Dike's entrance seriously changed the ability of San Jose to deal with the pairing, but his late miss should see him relegated to the bench in favor of anyone else. Wallace played well but should not be in the central midfield as he is not technically skilled enough, far too reckless, and his speed can be better utilized on the wing. Horst is a beast prone to one serious mistake a match. This time he let Wondo sneak back post for the win. I thought Mosquera was supposed to be our marquee defender. And now onto Utah.
After a bit of back and forth to start the match, with Boyd seeing a header go wide, Horst was forced to clear a shot off the line early, with questions about whether it had crossed the line strengthening the case for goal-line technology in soccer. When Dike came on for the injured Scotsman, Portland seemed to figure out their counterattack. In this formation, and against San Jose, Portland was never going to control possession, but Songo'o started to exert his influence on the left while Nagbe and Wallace started working well together on the right side, and Dike's pace and brutality keeping the defenders in check better than Boyd's better skill on the ball. He immediately put a head into a Bernardez, giving warning that a much larger and more aggressive player had now come onto the field. Minutes later Bendik gave his partner Opara an elbow to the back of the head as he came out to to meet a cross, showing our toughness at the front and the back and serving as a warning to Lenhart to watch himself.
After a San Jose give-away in midfield, Wallace and Mwanga worked a give and go to open the scoring right before the break. It was a good piece of footwork, first making a nice run between the defenders as they over committed, then rounding the keeper with composure. It was Danny's second goal of the year, his first coming against San Jose at home in July. The teams went into the locker rooms with Portland holding a rare lead on the road.
The second half saw much of the same, the Earthquakes dominating the game but not able to break through the defense. Horst was looking particularly effective against Lenhart in the middle, winning most of the headers that were sent in his direction. Wondo came in just before the hour mark, and immediately sparked the San Jose attack, which had become somewhat stagnant despite the control they exerted across the pitch. But it would be Portland who would score next, against all odds, and it was again on the break when Portland struck, as Songo'o dribbled down the field on the counter, holding off defenders before feeding Danny on the left. He took a few touches to his right and blasted a shot into the upper right, putting Portland up two goals just after the hour mark.
Gordon immediately came on after the goal. Shortly after he won a header, which Lenhart poked over to Wondo, who took a touch and beat Bendik at the far post. The lead was cut to one, with the 'Quakes fired up and ready to score again. The remainder of regulation time saw a handful of crazy scrums in the box, with Bendik coming up big a few times and San Jose coming close a few more. But all our hearts would break when Mosquera expertly flicked on to Wondo at the back post two minutes into stoppage time, who headed back across and into the goal - catching Bendik in an impossible position. It was one of the single worst instances of clearance and marking this year. We had three centerbacks, and they had three strikers, so there is no reason anyone should ever be unmarked.
Portland had one golden chance at the end, as Songo'o made another brilliant run with the ball downfield, literally holding off Victor Bernardez, then squaring the ball to the three red jerseys in the box. Jack was just behind Bright, with Nagbe a few yards to his right. Dike took the shot just as Lenhart tackled him from behind, putting it just wide right. It looked like a penalty to me, Lenhart took out his feet in the box, and never touched the ball. Not sure at all what the referee was looking at there, but it really shouldn't have mattered. Dike should have felt the pressure from behind and let the ball roll through for Nagbe or Jewsbury. How awesome would it have been if he just stopped dead in his tracks and took out Lenhart just as Nagbe slots in the winner. Instead he flubbed the shot and ruined a perfect attempt. Franck was livid at the wastefulness of his game-winning assist-to-be.
I predicted that the squad would maintain it's shape while giving some different faces a chance to prove themselves. This made sense given the success of the new formation, especially against teams playing a 4-4-2, which everyone could have told you San Jose would trot out. I'll have to guess that it was to give Mwanga a proper strike partner since he does not like being alone up top. Kris Boyd came back into the starting lineup next to Danny, but left after 13 minutes with a groin strain, injuring himself in the only decent moment he had on the pitch. Dike came in for him, and looked more dangerous, if less competant on the ball.
Portland matched San Jose's flat four midfield as Songo'o retained his role on the left and Jack stuck it out in the middle. Gavin moved Darlington out wide right and put Rodney in the middle of the pitch. It was a pretty strange move since Nagbe has become so successful after moving to the middle of the midfield where he can see more of the ball and control the offense instead of waiting for it to come to him. Rodney did okay for himself, but I think he would have been the more effective player on the right side, even with his left foot. If this were FIFA13, and Nagbe is a 82 and Wallace is a 75 in their first choice positions, switching them reduces their scores by 5-10 points. It is about optimizing your personnel, something this team has struggled with since forever.
Steven Smith returned to the lineup for Portland after his suspension, and Lovel Palmer started at right back for Kimura. Horst and Mosquera remained in the middle. Lovel did a poor job, as usual, but no worse than Kosuke does every time out. He did seem to do a better job of blocking crosses into the box than Kimura did against Seattle and Colorado, but that may just be a feature of Corrales or Morrow being less dangerous than Zakuani or Gonzalez. Palmer came out injured at the end of the match however, and a mask-less Kimura reprised his role on the backline.
On the other end of the field, Yallop gave Wondo and Gordon a breather, starting super-sub Lenhart for a change. Simon Dawkins played just off him as the second in their 4-4-2. Lenhart was neutralized well by Horst's man-marking, again showing that when he is turned on David can be an excellent defender. Simon Dawkins wasn't particularly effective as a striker and looked much more comfortable after Wondolowski came in and he moved to the wing.
San Jose started captain Ramiro Corrales on the left side of midfield, and he made successful runs against Palmer all night. The center of the midfield featured the workhorse Sam Cronin and playmaker Rafael Baca, who together regularly tore apart Jewsbury and Wallace. Mehdi Ballouchy started on the right with Dawkins up top, and didn't bring a whole lot to the game. He had his hands full with Songo'o on that side of the field, not able to stop Franck's runs and also not able to make successful forays himself.
Ike Opara returned to the back line, partnering with Victor Bernardez in the middle. Justin Morrow started on the left and Beitashour put in another excellent shift on the right. Busch retained his role between the posts. The defense didn't have a ton to do against a Portland team in possession, but they did not do well to react to the Timbers counterattacks. The Timbers scored twice on the counter and should have won the match on the counter as well, but for Dike's terrible miss.
The substitutions in this match really showed why Gavin should not be a head coach. Looking past the poor decision to start with a 4-4-2, his ineptitude was shown by the subsequent failure to make any changes at halftime. Despite having the lead, Portland had conceded 64% of possession to San Jose - something should have changed. Yallop reacted to Mwanga's second strike to bring in Wondo for Ballouchy and move Dawkins to the right. This didn't change the team's shape but improved their threat from the wing and in the box. Six minutes later when Alan Gordon entered the match for Baca, the 'Quakes shifted from the 4-4-2 into a 4-3-1-2, with Wondo playing just behind the two big targets and Cronin alone in the middle. The switch gave Portland more of the ball, but every time San Jose touched the ball it was a mad scramble to contain their attack. And Nagbe was still stuck on the wing instead of where he should have been, isolated against Cronin in the middle.
Gavin didn't react to the switch, which was immediately obvious, for another 20 minutes. Finally the team changed shape to deal with the three striker threat, with Brunner coming in for Mwanga at 85', moving Portland into a 5-4-1. Theoretically this switch would have worked, and it mostly did until Mosquera fed an otherwise offsides and totally unmarked Wondo. It was really too late though, and the team had already exhausted itself emotionally with all of the frantic clearances of the preceding twenty minutes.
When Gordon came on, the move should have been to remove Mwanga for Alexander right then, or at the latest after the first goal. Move Nagbe to the middle and give Wallace the job of marking Simon Dawkins, who was much more effective than Ballouchy. This frees up Jack to man-mark Wondolowski, so the centerbacks can focus on the big target forwards ahead of him, and puts a possession player in the middle to counter Cronin. Instead, Wondo dropped in and out of the midfield, causing confusion among the defense. Jack and Rodney inexpertly picked him up but lost him again as he drifted towards the front and overloading the defense. Nagbe was forced to defend Dawkins on the wing, putting him in poor position to create on the counter, which was obviously the only way the team was going to do anything positive. When Brunner came on, the backline was in shambles and the transition from two to three center defenders was not a smooth one.
A few final thoughts. I thought it was very encouraging to see Danny Mwanga really exert an influence over a match. Dike's entrance seriously changed the ability of San Jose to deal with the pairing, but his late miss should see him relegated to the bench in favor of anyone else. Wallace played well but should not be in the central midfield as he is not technically skilled enough, far too reckless, and his speed can be better utilized on the wing. Horst is a beast prone to one serious mistake a match. This time he let Wondo sneak back post for the win. I thought Mosquera was supposed to be our marquee defender. And now onto Utah.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Timbers in San Jose Preview
The boys travel to the Bay Area to face off tonight against the top team in the league, San Jose Earthquakes. Coming off a tough game this weekend, with another game at Salt Lake on Saturday, we can expect a roster shakeup over the course of this road trip. Portland still has yet to win a match on the road, and I don't think it's very likely that we'll see that streak ended this week. I think we could sneak a draw out of one of the two matches, most likely Salt Lake as they had a rough Champions League match in Panama last night. I'm expecting a heavy loss in California of the -2 differential variety. Wondolowski scores early, and Simon Dawkins adds a second before halftime. Nagbe pulls one back after the break only for Lenhart to pile two on after he comes in late. 4-1
Donovan Ricketts is out for a few weeks with a shoulder separation, so Joe Bendik will step into the starting lineup. Jake Gleeson was taken out by a Seattle thug in the Reserve match, so Scott Angevine was called up from the MLS goalkeeper pool to act as his deputy. Steven Smith will come back into the starting lineup, even though Wallace had a great performance on Saturday. We can expect to see Eric Brunner make his first team debut this week, but I think it will come on Saturday as he went 90 minutes on Sunday, so Horst and Mosquera will continue their partnership in the middle. Lovel Palmer will start at right back (his role on the Jamaican National Team) as Kimura has been terrible lately. As bad as Palmer is, Kimura is every bit his equal. If I had more inside information on the team's travel roster, I would have an advantage in predicting this stuff, like some other writers.
Jack remains the anchor in the midfield, and Eric Alexander will come in as Chara is out injured. Nagbe maintains his spot at the point of the midfield triangle. Songo'o starts again on the left, but I think anything I say after that is just guessing. Kalif showed he deserves to start again after his performance in the reserve match, and Sal is so easily shut down by players who are as fast as him, it has to happen. He also did not play the whole match on Sunday. Gavin really likes both players, so I cannot decide who will start. Mwanga showed a little of what he can provide up front when he came on against Seattle, and Dike showed exactly what he cannot do - consistently win challenges and hold up the ball when it comes his way. I think we will see Danny start since he didn't play in the reserve match.
Rodney Wallace will come off the bench first, for Songo'o, as his reward for his performance over the weekend. This will reduce the team's technical quality but increase the speed just as the game is slowing down. We cannot forget the increase of chaos that adding Wallace into the mix will provide, much as adding Lenhart late in the game does for San Jose. Depending on how Danny is doing, he might come out for Dike, but if he's having a great game, we might see an ineffective Kalif or Darlington come out instead. Either of those changes would result in a change of team shape to more of 4-4-2 diamond, which is also a good tactic if things are working later on in a match. The final sub will be Zizzo, probably very late, for Nagbe or Kalif, whomever is still left. I see no reason for Boyd to play another minute for this team.
I haven't paid enough attention to the Earthquakes lineup to successfully predict anything. I know they almost always play a flat 4-4-2 with Wondolowski and Gordon up top, then bring Lenhart in later in the game, sometimes for one of the forwards and sometimes for another position to pile it on up top. Steven Beitashour has been having a career season at right back and was called up to the All-Star game as well as a national team call up in August. Marvin Chavez is out injured, and Mehdi Ballouchy started for him. We may see Ramiro Corrales start though, as he has been a consistent midfield contributor. Sam Cronin has been solid in central midfield next to Rafael Baca, and Tottenham loanee Simon Dawkins is always dangerous.
It's a tough matchup tonight, one that is unlikely to go well. Portland should have an extra man down the center of the park, much like against Seattle. Cronin and Baca pale compared to facing Alonso, but they are both solid players. This game will come down to San Jose dominating our outside backs and getting Wondo and Gordon excellent service. Dawkins will destroy Palmer all night long.
I won't be able to watch the match live, as I have to work. Without a television or digital cable, I have to wait until the MLS Live blackout is over to watch the full match. Can't I just pay more to eliminate the blackouts on a game-by-game basis? I really don't want to pay for the rest of the nonsense on regular or cable television just so I can watch a recorded version of the game in a timely fashion.
Donovan Ricketts is out for a few weeks with a shoulder separation, so Joe Bendik will step into the starting lineup. Jake Gleeson was taken out by a Seattle thug in the Reserve match, so Scott Angevine was called up from the MLS goalkeeper pool to act as his deputy. Steven Smith will come back into the starting lineup, even though Wallace had a great performance on Saturday. We can expect to see Eric Brunner make his first team debut this week, but I think it will come on Saturday as he went 90 minutes on Sunday, so Horst and Mosquera will continue their partnership in the middle. Lovel Palmer will start at right back (his role on the Jamaican National Team) as Kimura has been terrible lately. As bad as Palmer is, Kimura is every bit his equal. If I had more inside information on the team's travel roster, I would have an advantage in predicting this stuff, like some other writers.
Jack remains the anchor in the midfield, and Eric Alexander will come in as Chara is out injured. Nagbe maintains his spot at the point of the midfield triangle. Songo'o starts again on the left, but I think anything I say after that is just guessing. Kalif showed he deserves to start again after his performance in the reserve match, and Sal is so easily shut down by players who are as fast as him, it has to happen. He also did not play the whole match on Sunday. Gavin really likes both players, so I cannot decide who will start. Mwanga showed a little of what he can provide up front when he came on against Seattle, and Dike showed exactly what he cannot do - consistently win challenges and hold up the ball when it comes his way. I think we will see Danny start since he didn't play in the reserve match.
Rodney Wallace will come off the bench first, for Songo'o, as his reward for his performance over the weekend. This will reduce the team's technical quality but increase the speed just as the game is slowing down. We cannot forget the increase of chaos that adding Wallace into the mix will provide, much as adding Lenhart late in the game does for San Jose. Depending on how Danny is doing, he might come out for Dike, but if he's having a great game, we might see an ineffective Kalif or Darlington come out instead. Either of those changes would result in a change of team shape to more of 4-4-2 diamond, which is also a good tactic if things are working later on in a match. The final sub will be Zizzo, probably very late, for Nagbe or Kalif, whomever is still left. I see no reason for Boyd to play another minute for this team.
I haven't paid enough attention to the Earthquakes lineup to successfully predict anything. I know they almost always play a flat 4-4-2 with Wondolowski and Gordon up top, then bring Lenhart in later in the game, sometimes for one of the forwards and sometimes for another position to pile it on up top. Steven Beitashour has been having a career season at right back and was called up to the All-Star game as well as a national team call up in August. Marvin Chavez is out injured, and Mehdi Ballouchy started for him. We may see Ramiro Corrales start though, as he has been a consistent midfield contributor. Sam Cronin has been solid in central midfield next to Rafael Baca, and Tottenham loanee Simon Dawkins is always dangerous.
It's a tough matchup tonight, one that is unlikely to go well. Portland should have an extra man down the center of the park, much like against Seattle. Cronin and Baca pale compared to facing Alonso, but they are both solid players. This game will come down to San Jose dominating our outside backs and getting Wondo and Gordon excellent service. Dawkins will destroy Palmer all night long.
I won't be able to watch the match live, as I have to work. Without a television or digital cable, I have to wait until the MLS Live blackout is over to watch the full match. Can't I just pay more to eliminate the blackouts on a game-by-game basis? I really don't want to pay for the rest of the nonsense on regular or cable television just so I can watch a recorded version of the game in a timely fashion.
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