Portland ran out a misguided 4-4-2 against San Jose on Wednesday, and I'm going to hope that Gavin decides to revert to the 4-3-3, especially given the success against Seattle's midfield diamond. Dike's miss should cause him to be benched in favor of Mwanga starting up top alone. Nagbe reverts to the tip of the midfield triangle, pushed even higher than normal to compensate for Mwanga's need for a partner. Songo'o will continue his excellent work on the left, and Zizzo will return to the lineup on the right. Alhassan deserves a chance to start again, and it should come here after Wallace's mediocre showing against the 'Quakes. He should start in the center of the midfield and act as a deeper lying playmaker after showing his defensive chops in the reserve match. With Nagbe and Mwanga ahead of him, this should occupy defenders and free up space for him to operate.
Jewbury will anchor the base of the midfield triangle and shield the defense. Brunner needs to get a start after coming back from his injury, and will likely come in for either Horst or Mosquera. I'm going to guess Horst will sit the bench because he has been the better defender lately and that seems about par for the course with regards to Gavin's decision making. Palmer hurt himself, and also sucked, so Kimura will start at the right with Smith keepin' on at the left. Bendik will get his second career MLS start.
Alvaro Saborio is most likely out with a shoulder injury, so Paulo, Jr. will likely start in his place alongside Fabian Espindola. Javier Morales starts at the tip of the midfield diamond behind them, finding his form after a long injury layoff. Kyle Beckerman anchors the base of the diamond with Grabavoy on the left and Johnson on the right. Olave and Borchers are both healthy again, and should start in the center of the defense. Wingert plays on the left and Beltran on the right, with Rimando rounding out the defense in goal.
Substitutions are going to be fairly easy if Gavin somehow goes with this lineup. Alexander should come in for the least effective midfielder or wide forward, with Alhassan sliding out wide if he comes on for one of the wide players. Dike will come in for Mwanga at some point, and I think we might see Fucito get a chance for a run out at wide forward as Songo'o is likely to be exhausted by the end of this match. Wallace may get the chance instead, but I cannot see the downside to giving Mike his chance.
RSL like to bring in Luis Gil and Johnny Steele, usually for the wide players. Emilio Bonfigli will likely come in for Paulo Jr. early in the second half, but won't have much more of an influence than his teammate. Luis Gil, however, will be a difference maker in the game for Salt Lake.
I haven't really had too much time to think about the match, but it seems that the key here should be Nagbe's ability to get behind Beckerman and Alhassan's ability to play two-way ball the entire game. If Songo'o continues his good work against Johnson and Beltran, this will draw the captain out of position, giving Nagbe and Alhassan room to work. Conversely, Zizzo could return to top form and torch Grabavoy and Wingert, which would also draw the defensive pivot out of position. And if both players are on their game, expect the chances to come on the counter with a respectable consistency. Salt Lake is going to control the game, so the Timbers need to maintain their defensive shape, track runners and maintain proper marking on set pieces. If the finishing doesn't fail us, as it did at the end of the last match, this trip to Utah should be much brighter than the 3-0 loss that immediately proceeded Spencer's firing. I don't think I can go as far as to predict a win, but scraping a goal late to equalize could be a reasonable result. 2-2 final score.
No comments:
Post a Comment