Wednesday, February 1, 2012

African Cup of Nations: Matchday 3

Group A:
Equatorial Guinea 0-1 Zambia
Libya 2-1 Senegal

Despite Libya's best efforts in their win over Senegal, they were unable to advance to the quarterfinals, as the other result in the group went against them. Issab Boussefi started things early for Libya with a 5' strike, only to have Demi Ndiaya hit the back of the net six minutes later to bring Senegal level. Boussefi got the winner in the 84' to complete his brace. Senegal came into this tournament as the highest ranked team (43) behind Ivory Coast (18) and Ghana (26), both of whom are ranked higher than the United States (33). Yet they were unable to win a single game, even losing to the lowest seed in the tournament, Equatorial Guinea (151). Zambia's win over Equatorial Guinea on Christopher Katongo's 67' winner gave them first place in Group A, with the co-hosts hold on for second place.

Group B:
Sudan 2-1 Burkina Faso
Ivory Coast 2-0 Angola

Sudan advance as second in their group because they lost by less than Angola to group winners Ivory Coast. Eithab Careca Mudathir scored on each side of the break to give Sudan the win, with Issiaka Ouedraogo getting a stoppage time consolation for Burkina Faso. Ivory Coast didn't grant Angola much chance as Emmanuel Eboue and Bony Wilfred scored for the Elephants on the half and full hours.

Group C:
Gabon 1-0 Tunisia
Niger 0-1 Morocco

Pierre Aubameyang has become a hero to his country these past two weeks, scoring in each of Gabon's three games. His 62' minute goal against the run of play gave the co-hosts the top of the group. Morocco and Niger faced off with only pride on the line, and Younes Belhanda gave Morroco their win eleven minutes from full time.

Group D:
Botswana 1-2 Mali
Ghana 1-1 Guinea

The battle for second place in the group was won for Mali by Barcelona midfield Seydou Keita. His 74' minute strike put the Eagles ahead of terrible Botswana for good. Garra Dembele brought Mali level just before the hour after Mogakolodi Ngele gave Botswana their first lead of the tournament. Guinea did their best to qualify for the knockout round, demolishing Botswana on matchday two to ensure themselves a great differential, but had to best Mali's result to move on after losing to the same side 1-0 on matchday one. Making things harder was Ghana needing only the draw to win the group, and as such were unwilling to give up much space in defense. Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu put Ghana ahead before the half hour, but Guinea put themselves level just before the half on a strike from Abdoul Camara. Their chances of progressing were greatly reduced when Mamadou Bah was shown yellow on 50' and again at 70'; Guinea had little chance against Ghana for the rest of the match being down to ten men. 

Knockout Round:
2/4
Zambia v Sudan
Ivory Coast v Equatorial Guinea
2/5
Gabon v Mali
Ghana v Tunisia

I am going to predict that all four group winners advance to the semifinals. Zambia is much better than Sudan, and Ivory Coast will destroy Equatorial Guinea. Gabon/Mali and Ghana/Tunisia are much closer matches, though Ghana will still dominate Tunisia. I give the edge to Gabon due to their relative home-field advantage (the game is in Equatorial Guinea but is still very close to home relatively) for the only upset of the round. Ivory Coast and Ghana looked dominant in the group stage, and will face each other in the finals, setting up the best possible matchup for a final out of all possible outcomes. Except maybe unless both host countries made it, but that is not very likely. I think Ivory Coast is going to win, simply because Didier Drogba will find a way to make that happen. 

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